RAILA ODINGA FACES THE BIGGEST TEST OF HIS POLITICAL CAREER OVER THE LOOMING ODM PRIMARIES AS HE HEADS TO THE LAST STAB ON THE PRESIDENCY.

The Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) leader cuts the image of a President-in-waiting, at least on the national scene. The indefatigable opposition chief is a man that is under the radar of both the Jubilee and CORD zealots who will do anything to not avoid even a simple blink of their eyelids, lest Raila pulls a move that will effectively terminate their political lives.

But, unknown to many, the former Prime Minister is a man under siege, while he appears easy in public and only awaiting for the blow of the final whistle to fire his “last bullet”, Raila Odinga is a troubled man.

The CORD flag bearer’s position and the reconstitution of the IEBC through minimum reforms are just two reasons for his head ache; in fact they are just a small bit of the things that bother the son of the doyen of opposition politics. And saying that Raila’s “In-Tray” is full as he approaches the 2017 elections is an understatement.

Raila who is expected to make his fourth and probably the last attempt at the presidency in just about 16 months is reportedly keen to seal all loopholes that may have caused him the seat in the last three stabs.

Top on his agenda is the ever chaotic, shambolic and a mockery to democracy that has been ODM’s nomination exercise especially in his back yard of Nyanza, and by extension Western Kenya.

Interestingly, one of the battle fronts for ODM party nominations will be the seat of County Governors. Herein lies the control of Billions of shillings allocated to county governments as a direct result of devolution, which the former Premier fought tooth and nail to be entrenched in the new constitution.

The current crop of governors have been accused of presiding over news centers of corruption in the name of county governments and now their 2013 “Team Mates” have turned their eyes on those seats, angling to send them packing on the ballot day.

The ODM party leader has in no uncertain terms said that this time round he will not interfere in the ODM’s internal nominations. He has said severally that he will work with whoever will be voted in by the people during the nominations and whoever wins in the general elections.

The question is, can the man from Opoda farm keep his word? Can he subject his trusted loyalists and allies like Nyong’o, Orengo and Jakoyo to an exercise that they are likely to lose? Time will tell, but let us ponder the following scenarios.

In Kisumu, the incumbent governor Jack Ranguma is facing an onslaught from Senator Prof Anyang’ Nyong’o who is believed to be ODM’s choice and business mogul Dr. Hezron Mc’Obewa. 

Ranguma, who is a direct beneficiary of the post nomination rebellion in the last polls, (Raila’s perceived attempt to have his sister Ruth Odinga become governor was flatly rejected as Kisumu county residents went to the streets chanting, “No Ranguma, No Raila”) has been heavily criticized for presiding over a corrupt regime coupled with skewed appointments on clan lines. 

Ranguma hopes that with Ruth Odinga as his deputy, his re election bid is rosy and secured. Other hopefuls include Asaka Nyangara from Nyakach, David Wayiera and Prof Wayumba who both hail from Nyahera.

Everyone will be looking at Raila Odinga ahead of 2017 for whatever he says or does at that time will ultimately change the scenario. ”If he chooses to stand by his long time friend Prof. Nyong’o, the rebellion might be bigger than 2013. The professor from Ratta in Seme is immensely unpopular, stingy and out of touch with the local politics” said a local pundit.

Word on the street is that a section of voters in Kisumu county are waiting for Raila to make the mistake of anointing Nyong’o then they tell him off with a protest vote to another candidate.

Philanthropist Dr. Mc’Obewa may be the biggest beneficiary in an event that Raila lets the people decide. He has employed detailed strategies on the ground, reaching to people in all corners of the county. 

He has paid school fees to orphans, drilled bore holes and helped many needy cases. “With all factors constant, Dr. Mc’Obewa will beat Ranguma at 9 am on election date. No wonder both Ranguma and Nyong’o camps are silently hoping that the former PM weighs in so that confusion reigns”.

The other game changer would be the type of running mates that the three will pick and their choice for the seat of Senator. 

While Nyong’o is said to be angling to support Nyando MP Fred Outa as Senator, his running mate remains unknown. Ranguma is believed to be toying with the idea of bringing in Elijah Oburu, son to nominated MP Dr. Oburu Odinga and nephew to Raila. His choice for Senator remains unknown though. 

Dr. Mc’Obewa has kept his cards close to his chest though his close aides have hinted to this blog that he may rope in the current Market-Millimani ward MCA Eddy Anayo to fetch the diaspora votes, as he tries to calculate the Kano factor and the non Kisumu locals who hold a huge sway in the county politics.

In Siaya, according to Rarieda MP Nicholas Gumbo, Cornel Amoth Rasanga who was literally fished under the bed to be  the governor has become very unpopular and is said to be only waiting for the besieged IEBC to officially open the campaigns for him to declare that he is not defending his seat.

On the surface, Rasanga has endeared himself towards Jakom and even alluded to having Raila’s special daughter Rosemary as his running mate, all in the hopes of “catching” Raila’s eyes for a Rasanga Tosha pronouncement. 

The idea to have Rosemary as his running mate is already causing jitters among the supporters of his deputy Ouma Onyango, who feel that the son of the colonial chief wants to dump the career High school principle who they have had an on and off affair.

Rasanga through his director of communication Boni Odinga has since dismissed that idea as media fabrication

He is however believed to have effectively voted himself out due to uncouth behaviors like declaring non existence public holidays and calling on Cord governors to remove President Uhuru’s portrait from their offices and replace them with that of Raila Odinga.

His biggest challenge might come from Raila’s right hand man and Siaya Senator James Orengo, though sources close to the former PM disclose that Raila has a soft spot for former regional PS Carey Orege.

Other formidable candidates who have shown interest include Rarieda MP Nicholas Gumbo who is seen as the people’s choice and Gem MP Jakoyo Midiwo who has kept everybody guessing though he is believed to be fronting William Oduol who won in 2013 but was robbed in day broad light.

Like in Kisumu, everyone will be keenly watching any move that Raila will or will not make. If he chooses to keep off, then Siaya gubernatorial race might turn out to be one of the hotly contested in Luo Nyanza.

The battle in that case is likely to be between businessman Wiliam Oduol, Senator James Orengo and Rarieda MP Nicholas Gumbo as the other flower girls will be escorting them.

South Nyanza, a region that ODM enjoys massive support and seen as it’s bedrock, has the twin counties of Migori and Homa Bay. Homa Bay, for starters, has the highest number of ODM rebels who have openly defied the party and Raila Odinga the like of James Rege of Karachuonyo and George Oner of Rangwe have no love for Jakom.

They are known to give unwavering support to Raila, but will not shy away from speaking their minds on any issue. It is not lost on observers how they rejected attempts to have Raila replace their late Senator Otieno Kajwang. The party leader would not want to get into any antagonism with such a wrathful electorate base. In fact, already battle lines are drawn and players will be fighting among themselves and give baba their best choice.

ODM party chairman John Mbadi has openly declared his support and endorsed the incumbent Cyprian Awiti for a second term pitting him against Raila’s ardent supporter Commissioner Gladys Wanga who is oscillating between the current Kasipul MP Oyugi Magwanga and Rusinga’s Mr. Money Bags Sammy Wakiaga.

While Awiti has lost favor with most of the elected leaders, but none of his would be challengers looks good enough to displace him. The other notable noise makers like Millie Odhiambo of Mbita, Agustino Neto of Ndhiwa and Silvance Osele Kabondo-Kasipul are still marking time, probably considering where to place their bets.

Pundits says that what has worked for Awiti is the correct political moves that he makes, he is the only governor that has worked well without friction with his deputy Hamilton Orata hails from Ndhiwa and keeping him as his preferred running mate could possibly deliver him a second term. 

During the burial of ODM chairman John Mbadi's mother in November last year, Awiti made a public announcement that as Luo Nyanza governors they had decided to fully support Raila's last stab to the presidency with all their resources. 

One would argue that in an event that the governors jointly donate 1.2 Billion to Raila's presidential kitty, would the party still subject them to the ever vigorous ODM primaries.....???

In the neighboring Migori County, Okoth Obado appears to be heading for a smooth re-election since no substantial opposition has come his way. Having won on a PDP ticket, it was hugely expected that the ODM brigade would quickly make his work difficult and slay him ahead of 2017.

Nothing much can be heard of Mrs. Anyanga, wife to current Nyatike MP Edick Anyanga and former Rongo MP Ochillo Ayako who on a fair and leveled ground could be Obado’s nightmare are also still believed to be sharpening their weapons.

Obado has opted for the seemingly easier route of getting closer to the Odinga family, he is said to be very close to Mrs Ida Odinga after he single handedly took the responsibility of fully funding the funeral expenses of Raila Odinga’s mother in law.

With this tactic that may terribly fail, he joins the league of Ranguma and Rasanga who believe that having an Odinga name as one of their strategies is an automatic win. TIME WILL TELL.

ENDS..