IS WORLD SEEING THE LAST POLITICAL MOMENTS OF RAILA AMOLO ODINGA.......??

Former Prime Minister and Opposition Chief Raila Amollo Odinga has had a checkered political life traversing over three decades. Indeed the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) leader has been at the fore front of the struggle for the second and what has been dubbed as the final liberation of Kenya.

The son of the Doyen of Opposition politics in Kenya, Raila has been referred to as the cause and cure of the country’s two main political diseases, “Railaphobia” and “Railamania”. Sentiments aptly captured by the late Ford Kenya leader Kijana Wamalwa, “Those who suffer from Railamania love him so much and would do anything for him while those who suffer from Railaphobia fear him just as much.”

Born on January 7^th, 1945 to the late Mary Ajuma Odinga and Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, Agwambo (The mysterious one) went to Kisumu Union Primary School and later Maranda High school. He then proceeded for further education in the then East Germany and returned to Kenya with a degree in Mechanical Engineering.

His political life began in 1982 following the attempted coup against former President Moi. Since then, Raila has towered above the Kenyan political skies attracting both a huge number of friends and foes. 

Today, he is at the center of anotther political storm where the opposition CORD has locked horns with the Jubilee administration over the fate of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) ahead of the next general elections slated for 2017.

At 71 years of age, is Raila in his sunset years of politics? Is the world seeing his last political moments? 

Political commentators and even Raila’s own supporters have alluded to the fact that the 2017 general elections will be his last stab at the Presidential race. 

The now famous “last bullet” is a familiar catch phrase with commentators. Whatever will happen after the final bullet is fired remains to be seen and we can only speculate.

Is the Luo nation prepared for a post Raila Odinga political era? Is ODM, CORD and Kenya ready for politics without the man who has been said to sneeze and Kenya catches a cold? 

Let us contemplate the scenario. While Kenya at large will simply move on like it did when Moi exited the scene, CORD, ODM and the Luo nation at large will feel the effect of a retired Raila Odinga. While CORD and ODM may experience some levels of disintegration as members might go their separate ways in pursuit of various political goals, the Luo nation is headed for a confused period indeed.

For starters, Raila has been the de facto leader of the Luo community for close to four decades now. His grip on the region can only be compared to that of Moi in the Kalenjin community. Without any heir to the throne visible, the community only discuses Raila’s succession in hushed tones. 

Nobody wants to be caught talking about Raila’s succession. The chairman of the Luo Council of Elders Opiyo Otondi actually got himself in trouble when he sensationally claimed that the elders had settled on Nairobi governor Evans Kidero as Raila successor. 

He had to swallow his words and seek a public apology for contemplating politics without Raila. Kidero himself has once in a while been attacked ferociously especially after his forays into Luo land, holding harambees here and there.

 The succession matter is even compounded by the fact that Raila’s confidants and those who would have easily slid into his big shoes are equally older and ageing. In this league are the likes of Kisumu Senator Prof. Peter Anyang’ Nyong’o who is 72, Siaya Senator James Orengo at 65, Rongo MP Dalmas Otieno at 71 and Dr Oburu Oginga 76.

This leaves the younger generation of Luo politicians alone on the weighing scale. In this list is Dr. Kidero (58), Suba MP John Mbadi (mid 40s), Gem MP Jakoyo (47) and probably former Rarieda MP Raphael Tuju (56). 

Tuju is though a very unlikely candidate owing to his abrasive opposition to the Raila and the Odinga family at large and his unhidden hate of the Luo nation brand of politics. 

This leaves the trio of Kidero, Mbadi and Jakoyo. This list may widen depending on how things play out ahead of and after 2017 polls.

Some political pundits have further suggested that the Luo nation must be in government after the 2017 elections at all cost and another way through that is by Raila Odinga supporting Nairobi governor Dr. Evans Kidero to be Uhuru's running mate and bargain for influential cabinet positions like Interior, Finance Agriculture and Devolution. 

Of the three, it is only Kidero who stands out. He has the financial might, political clout and only needs some kind of anointing by Raila in order for him to take over the mantle.

Raila’s succession plan whether held in secrecy or guarded by his close confidants, it remains a very juicy debate that the luo nation must discuss further and come up with a plan lest we remain political orphans.

ENDS.